How Sara Menker is forecasting supply chain disruption and helping businesses plan ahead

In May, Menker testified before the United Nations Security Council about the impact of such unprecedented factors as global conflict on food security, noting that 400 million people had lost reliable access to affordable, nutritious food in the first five months of 2022, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Menker, who grew up in Ethiopia at a time when the country experienced food shortages, attended college in the U.S. and weathered the 2008 financial crisis as a commodities trader at Morgan Stanley. She has managed to build a business on her ability to withstand the worst and plan for it. This is how she predicts the future and persuades companies and governments to take action.

Identify the problem you want to solve

Growing up in Addis Ababa in the ’80s during a period of widespread famine, Menker learned how to be ready for possible shortages at an early age. “I always joke that the reason I had so much toilet paper when COVID lockdowns happened was because we used to live on rationed toilet paper,” she says. Forever affected by such scarcity, Menker had long been interested in tackling food access and supply chain issues, but wasn’t sure how. While working at Morgan Stanley in the 2000s, she saw a way. “As a trader, I saw the power of data transforming the energy market, and I realized that the solution [to food insecurity] would be around data,” she says. Today, Gro Intelligence combines more than 650 trillion data points, including agricultural and economic stats and satellite imagery, with AI to create models that predict everything from the impact of natural and human-caused disasters on food supply to how weather events affect the price of goods. Her insights now help paying customers like grocery chains and insurance companies, as well as academics and nonprofits focused on food security and climate (which can get free access to Gro’s premium-level research), anticipate supply chain issues and shortages.

Find the pattern in the data

Gro Intelligence begins with the big picture, figuring out how macro trends can affect people on an intimate level. One of Menker’s models, for example, looks at how weather patterns affect avocado production in Mexico, and considers how that will impact prices at local supermarkets. Menker tries to keep a top-level perspective on her professional life as well. “One of the weird benefits of having been an options and volatility trader in a very volatile market is that I routinely had days where I made or lost a lot of money,” she says. “I couldn’t be defined by those days or those moments. I had to be defined by the choices I made in the moment and whether I believed those choices were right.” She maintains a similar mindset as CEO of Gro, keeping her eye on her larger mission to alleviate food insecurity even as she advises companies like Yum Brands on how to help their bottom line. In 2020, when Ethiopia’s crop production was being hampered by a locust infestation, Gro provided pro bono services to the country’s government. Insights included how to strategically deploy pesticides to protect the country in the immediate term, but also on how to increase food reserves in anticipation of a longer-term rise in food prices across the globe.