NRF’s 2016 holiday retail season forecast: 3.6% increase & strong chance of non-store growth

The National Retail Federation has announced a moderate forecast for retailers across the board and a favorable forecast for those non-store sellers.


New data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts modest growth this holiday season, with expected sales of $655.8 billion, up 3.6 percent from 2015. This is a record number, and the year-over-year growth outpaces 2015 by 0.4 percent. The great news for online retailers is that all non-store sales are estimated to jump seven percent this year.


Image courtesy of The National Retail Federation

The non-store numbers include online sales, direct-to-consumer and kiosk numbers — so this stat isn’t a pure representation of all digital sales. Furthermore, the numbers from the NRF exclude automobile sales, gas and restaurants, and the time frame of sales is November and December of this year.

In 2015, the NRF reported non-store holiday sales at $105 billion, up nine percent from 2014. Using these numbers, the overall non-store holiday sales in 2016 would weigh in at $112.35 billion.

Further good news comes with estimates of between 640,000 and 690,000 seasonal positions opening up this season, on par with 2015’s numbers of 675,300.

To see the full report, head to NRF, or see the official slideshow on SlideShare.


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